Understanding Risk
Risk is a major fundamental planning process that we will discuss in later articles. The decision to make this its own article is only due to the importance of understanding risk, assessments and how to help us plan. We will go into planning more in future articles, for now want to give you a good baseline of risk assessment to include in your planning phase. With that said, we need to really gain a great understanding of risk. When talking about risk, we truly need to understand what risks are. Starting off with the definition of risk.
Risk: a situation involving exposure (someone or something valued) to danger, harm, or loss.
Someone or something valued…sounds an awful lot like your loved ones and your home doesn't’ it? Now, my first thought is that it can seem overwhelming to think of all the possible scenarios, hazards, disasters, emergencies, events, circumstances, variables and so on that could affect your home and more importantly your loved ones. But, this is why we have tools to help us. In addition to all those tools, there are a ton of resources at your disposal if you look at your city, county, state emergency managers/safety websites. One of the best places to start learning your area would be www.ready.gov. From there you can find more local resources and information as it breaks further down to individual states and cities. It is nearly invaluable. They will already have some of the more relevant risks in your immediate area. This is where we can really start using work that has already been done, to set our foundations. By knowing the government’s (city, state and so on) response, we can better make our plans from their research.
This may seem odd, acknowledging risks and uncertainties in a book on preparedness. Regardless, we must acknowledge that there are real threats out there. No, I do not mean these conjured up scenarios for companies to sell products, but real everyday circumstances that occur in our daily lives. What are they? Shootings? Vehicle Breakdowns? Earthquakes? Medical emergency? Yes, these are all real, and these are the most likely to happen, and there are so much more than those few. So how do you know what to prioritize? That’s where risk analysis comes in.
Now where do you start analyzing risk? This is a tricky question, because if you turn on the news there are a thousand different topics which promote fear for the average citizen. Shootings, wars, avalanches, earthquakes, nuclear war and so on and so forth. These are worrisome issues of course, but the likelihood of these events in your area may not be as probable as you think. Surely if you live in the south, you won’t be concerned with avalanches. If you do not live toward the west coast, you are most likely not concerned with earthquakes. Geographic location needs to be considered, not just state but within your city/town, county/parish, and so on. Almost like reverse engineering from micro to macro.
Why do I bring this up? Because there is some psychology to all of this. When I talk to people especially in the survival, bushcraft, preparedness industries or look at their marketing you see a trend. It’s always some worst case scenario, which in most cases is not even likely. A great example of this is the belief that many hikers go missing or get lost in the woods. Do people get lost in the woods? Absolutely, but not at the rate or volume that folks would have you believe especially when trying to market a Navigation or survival skills class.
This is the question I ask people when I talk about their beliefs in preparing for the wilderness or outdoors.
Do you want to know what the leading cause of death in National Parks is?
According to an analysis conducted by Panish Shea & Boyle LLP in 2020, the leading cause of
deaths in U.S. National Parks is drowning. Yes, in an 11 year span, 668 people died by drowning. There were more reasons for fatalities in the study, but the point is most are constantly preparing for scenarios that are least likely to happen (See Probability Neglect). During this analysis for an 11-year span and total fatalities, "that equates to just under 8 deaths per 10 million visits to park sites during that time frame." (Panish Shea & Boyle LLP, 2020). When you look at the math, you have a higher chance of being struck by lightning. I can’t drive this point home enough, from the moment you walk out of your home, to the moment you walk back in you are surviving. That is REALITY.
So by the math, and as stated already, you have a greater chance of being struck by lightning around 80 times as opposed to dying in a national park. All this to say, there is no need to fear. However, preparedness and training will make those odds even smaller in your favor. Most people are living in a vacation mindset, which is explained very well in Laurence Gonzales’ book Everyday Survival is the below excerpt - Cox seemed to take it all with good humor, but he also seemed a bit in despair at the human condition. He said people come here suffering from what he called “a vacation state of mind, where all the old rules are suspended.” Referring to the numerous injuries, mostly minor, that occur on the big dune, he said, “Yes, gravity still does apply here, even when you’re on vacation.” (Gonzales, 2008). Throughout the book, Gonzales references this vacation state of mind and includes some chilling accounts of a Tsunami hitting Thailand - One video, shot by Anukul Charoenkul, owner of the Viewpoint Restaurant at the vacation resort of Khao Lak in Thailand, shows a lone man facing the sea as the wave approaches. He doesn’t move. He just stares at it until it sweeps him away. (Gonzales, 2008). The book details further accounts of people laughing, and looking at the large wave coming to get them, with no reaction, only until they were swept off their feet did the realization of what was happening click in their minds. This concept of Vacation Mindset will play into another concept called Probability of Neglect.
What if scenarios are what most survivalists commonly refer to as - “survival situations”. My beliefs deal more in practical scenarios, for example, you can cross the street to then be
hit by a car...NOW YOU ARE IN A SURVIVAL SITUATION.
The goal of this series is to present more of a simplistic approach when it comes to preparedness. This is why I bring up all these “psychological” concepts. For me, preparedness should be rooted in Realism, Practicality, Fundamentals, and Repeatability, anything else is just make believe. I want you to understand that when I say realistic, simple, and practical, most of this is common sense. We can throw out acronyms like SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats), OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act), STOP (Sit, Think, Observe, Plan), and more. I am not saying those acronyms don't work, but when you strip them down, it is fundamental things like stopping, taking a second, calming down, thinking through the situation, formulating a plan, and so on. Which is why I do discuss the STOP acronym in courses.
So here is the thought provoker. In your assessment and planning, you MUST avoid what is called “Probability of Neglect” (Sunstein, 2001). This is a cognitive bias as defined by a lawyer of all people. In a nutshell, emotions, especially fear cause people to focus on the most severe threat which also may be least likely to occur. Just as Daniel Kanheman describes in his book Thinking Fast and Slow (Kanheman, 2013), “The combination of probability neglect with the social mechanisms of availability cascades inevitably leads to gross exaggeration of minor threats, sometimes with important consequences.” The normal reaction to an event is to panic. We saw this during the pandemic with toilet paper of all things. In a panic buy, people literally were not concerned with food, water, or medical supplies, but toilet paper became the top commodity. It is comical to see this in hindsight, but during that time I found it disheartening that people had their priorities out of sorts.
Do not let fear, panic, and stress deter you from really looking at what “threats” or events are most likely to occur. For example, I live in Eastern North Carolina. Hurricanes are frequent here, all along the Southeast of the United States. We even get tornadoes. But a hurricane is more likely here than a tornado. In addition to the hurricanes, flooding is a potential event. With all of those natural events, cascading effects such as power outages and roads closing increase risks during these events. I am way more concerned for my family’s safety from a hurricane than I am about civil unrest in my local area. Does that mean it can’t happen? Of course not, in the weeks after George Floyd’s horrific murder, there were dozens of peaceful protests just 10 to 15 minutes from my home. I am proud to say my fellow Americans exercised their first amendment right to express their frustrations peacefully and with support from the surrounding communities. Other communities were not so lucky, such as the approximately 140 of which had riots resulting in millions of dollars in damages, injuries and too many additional deaths. The majority of those cities were larger like Charlotte, Durham, Fayetteville here in North Carolina, and many other cities in the country.
Here is how you can start figuring out what risks pose the most realistic threat. Using a hurricane vs. a riot for an example, I would assign a risk assessment level as such:
Crazy isn’t it? Both were scored severe impacts, but the probability made the true determination of the risk level. Now that does not mean you can’t have a high probability event, with a low impact which would be a low risk level. How do they get the Low, Medium, and Highest rating? Typically, you use the probability of an event, and the severity/impact of that event. Don’t get too wrapped up in the vocabulary, as there are varieties of verbiage used, but at the end of the day, the point is the same. You can easily google search some risk analysis worksheets. Find one that suits you and you can easily use to determine your analysis. To show you some different examples, I have included a couple of matrices below:
Figure 2-2
Figure 2-3
As you can see there are a variety of different ways to do so, but what I want you to really understand is what we’re factoring in. We are looking at probability and severity. These are the real determinations for prioritizing your risks or events to mitigate. Too often people fall under the spell of Probability Neglect mentioned earlier and prepare for most severe or extreme risk and forsake that it is highly unlikely. Media/Movies etc nearly propagandize some of these events that are highly unlikely but flashy to the fearful.
Geographic Considerations (local risks vs. regional risks)
We use risk analysis to assess the probability and impact/severity of an event occurring. This is done at all levels of emergency operations or emergency management. All states have emergency plans, most counties and cities do as well. Which is why you need to look at regional as well. Why? Well in most solid plans, there are evacuation routes and/or relocation sites for people and more. This is beneficial to you in your planning so you know where to go, or what to avoid. You know how the local government will respond to events. If you have not assessed any of this, where the roads run through, the relocation area in general, you can plan all you want for where your primary location is, but as soon as you depart, you will have to adjust on the fly, and if you have not done your homework those adjustments will be a lot tougher. To illustrate, below is an example of a regional risk analysis from Lincoln County, Wyoming. Notice how the levels of risk change for each city/town within the region.
Chances are your city, county, state has something similar to this already built. Use the work they have already done for you!
